I’ve been thinking long and hard about the impact of AI on capture. I’m trying to be honest with myself about the whole situation because I have a team of capture managers that I want to have meaningful work. I use AI a lot, personally and professionally, and see its potential. I’ve also spoken with clients, some using it well and some not so well, or at all. So, I asked myself, is AI going to be a supporting character to capture or will it be the end of my discipline?

Let’s dig in.

I use a common analogy when I’m asked what I do for a living by people not working in the federal space.  I often tell them as a capture manager, “I’m an official cat herder”.

And it’s true. Capture management is the art and science of leading a complex, ever-evolving team effort to win a single federal opportunity. You’re rallying stakeholders who each have different personalities, priorities, and degrees of availability. The path is rarely straight, the timeline often moves, and no two captures are exactly the same.

Now AI is knocking at our door. Tools like ChatGPT, PSci, AutogenAI, Rohirrim, and Ensis are making a splash across the industry, offering promise and power that could change the way we manage federal growth forever.

So, here’s the question: Can AI replace capture managers?

My answer: Absolutely not. But it can be the best assistant we’ve ever had.

Let’s stay with the cat herder analogy and break it down.

What AI Can Do for a Cat Herder (Capture Manager)

• Map the Terrain: AI can help you understand the landscape, who the decision-makers are, what’s been said, what’s been spent, and what’s coming next. It can scan forecasts, scrape websites, and monitor patterns so you’re better prepared before you even step onto the field.
• Tag and Track the Cats: It can help keep track of all the moving parts: which SME is behind on a deliverable, which gate review was last completed, or which partner still owes pricing input. AI tools can monitor progress, summarize meetings, and nudge your team with reminders.
• Analyze Herding Patterns: AI can spot trends, which competitors are showing up where, how pricing has shifted across vehicles, and what your historical win themes have in common. It brings pattern recognition to your fingertips.
• Automate the Repetitive Stuff: From drafting a compliance matrix to summarizing a call to generating early win themes, AI can handle the tedious, time-consuming work so you can focus on strategy and relationships.
• Keep Logs and Records: It never forgets who said what, when. With the right data, AI can recall historical intel, organize opportunity details, and manage artifacts better than the most meticulous note-taker.
• Simulate Scenarios: AI can run “what ifs” in seconds…what if you team differently? Price lower? Pursue a different role? It helps you explore options without starting from scratch.

What AI Can’t Do (and Never Will)

Chase the Cats: AI can tell you someone’s behind. It can’t pick up the phone, rebuild trust, or rally a reluctant contributor.

AI can suggest where the cats might be, but it can’t run into the bushes and coax them out.

Make Judgment Calls: It can weigh pros and cons but it won’t carry the risk of choosing to bid, pivot, or walk away. It doesn’t bear the burden of consequences, that’s still on us humans.

AI can offer advice, but it can’t make the call to fence in the yard or open the can of tuna or actually complete either of those activities.

Build Relationships: AI cannot resolve interpersonal team conflicts or win over a stubborn SME who doesn’t want to participate. And of course, federal customers buy from people they know and trust. AI can summarize their statements, but it can’t build credibility, show empathy, or close a deal over lunch.

AI can suggest which cats have been known to get along, but it can’t make the cats like each other or force collaboration.

Navigate Politics: Capture is a game of influence. AI doesn’t know when a stakeholder is bluffing, when silence is loaded, or when the real decision-maker isn’t in the room.

Cats sometimes scratch for no reason. AI doesn’t get offended, nor does it sense the tension.

Inspire Confidence: Humans want to follow humans. Your team, your partners, your leadership, they’re looking to you for confidence and direction. AI can’t take the heat in a review or give a compelling “go” recommendation when the data is fuzzy.

Cats don’t follow data, they follow the calm voice, the open hand, and the person who’s been there before.

Final Thought

Capture managers are, unapologetically, cat herders: leading teams that are smart, independent, and not always inclined to move in the same direction. AI is the loyal assistant: part mapmaker, part analyst, part litterbox monitor. It’s not a substitute for the human touch, but it can make the job a whole lot easier.

AI can help us gather intel faster, track activity more effectively, and generate artifacts with less effort. Like any good assistant, it frees you up to focus on what only you can do: build relationships, shape opportunities, and lead the pursuit to win.

But it can’t replace the judgment, intuition, and leadership that make capture managers essential to federal growth.

The future of capture isn’t AI versus humans. It’s AI with humans.

The cat herder stays in charge. AI just carries the clipboard.